Tiebreakers: How we bring order to chaos
As we enter the final stretch in the 2025 MLB season, we find ourselves intertwined with compelling storylines, matchups, and playoff races to define the picture come October. The playoff picture as it stands today (9/8) isn’t as jumbled as we’ve seen it in the past. There are some pretty clear-cut contenders. However, it’s crucial to understand the tiebreaking scenarios if we do end up with a tie at the end of the regular season.
As we sit today, the American League has more juice to it for the wild card seeding. The Yankees and Red Sox have the top two spots by 5 and 3.5 games respectively. The Mariners have the last spot, but 3-4 teams realistically are looking to challenge them. Here’s the current outlook:
It’s very possible that when all is said and done, we have a tie for some of the wild card seeding. For example, if the Yankees and Red Sox finish tied for the 4th wild card, what happens? Or if the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals finish with the same record, who gets in? Which two get left out? For that, we bring in our rulebook. These tiebreaker rules have been in effect since the wild card expanded in 2022 and eliminated the famous “Game 163”, the winner-takes-all single game to break a tie.
For a refresher, here’s how the playoff seeding works (check this article out if you want to see how it could be done differently).
#1 Seed: Division Winner with the best overall record.
#2 Seed: Division Winner with the second best overall record.
#3 Seed: Division Winner with the third best overall record.
#4 Seed: Non-Division Winner with the best overall record.
#5 Seed: Non-Division Winner with the second best record.
#6 Seed: Non-Division Winner with the third best record.
First Round (Wild Card Series):
#1 Seed has a bye - awaits winner of #4 and #5 Wild Card Series (no re-seeding like we see in NFL)
#2 Seed has a bye - awaits winner of #3 and #6 Wild Card Series (no re-seeding)
#6 Seed @ #3 Seed - Best of 3 series - #3 seed hosts all games
#5 Seed @ #4 Seed - Best of 3 series - #4 seed hosts all games
As you can see, the seeding matters quite a bit as teams will want to host the best-of-3 series, instead of heading into enemy territory. But things aren’t always cut and dry as far as winning percentage and records go, so let’s review those scenarios:
Scenario: Two teams are tied for a playoff seed.
If two teams have the same winning percentage and are tied for the same playoff seed, the following tiebreakers have been put in place:
Head to Head Record - this is very straightforward. If the two teams have played each other, and one team has a winning record vs. the other, that team will get the better seed. If the record between the two teams is the same, then we move to #2
Intradivision Record - this is where we look at how well each team has fared within their own division. For example, if the Blue Jays and the Tigers were tied for the #1 overall seed and they happened to go 3-3 against each other during the season, they would look at each team’s individual record vs. their respective divisions. Let’s say the Tigers, who beat up on the AL Central all year long, had a better record than the Blue Jays, who potentially got banged around in the AL East, then the Tigers would be awarded the top seed. If both teams had the same winning percentage within their own divisions, then we move to #3.
Interdivision Record - this would take the record of each team against teams within the AL that are NOT in their division. So the Blue Jays would compare their record vs. the AL Central/West against the Tigers’ record vs. the AL East/West. If there is still a tie, and you can see how we’re getting down in the weeds here, we will move to #4.
Last Half of Intraleague Games - this would take the record of say, the Blue Jays, against all AL teams after the midpoint in the season and compare it against the Tigers’ record of the same parameters. This is not their record after the All-Star game, this is the record at the actual halfway point of the season. If, somehow, there is still a tie, we move to the final scenario, #5.
Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One - this would be taking scenario #4 and then adding the most recent game of the first half of intraleague games. If the result is the same including that game, then that process then will repeat itself until the tie is eventually broken.
Scenario: Three teams are tied for a playoff seed.
If three teams are tied for a playoff seed, we look at the records against each other for team selection. Let’s use the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals (I will use hypothetical records since I don’t feel like going through and looking at head to head records right now). There are a couple different ways to slice this:
If the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals all have identical head to head records against each other, the scenario plays out as follows. The selected team will have:
The highest Win% among the three teams in intradivison games
The highest Win% among the three teams in intraleague games
The highest Win% among the three teams in the last half of intraleague games (see above)
The highest Win% among the three teams in the last half of intraleague games plus one (see above)
Now, if the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals are all tied for the last playoff spot, and the Mariners have a better record head-to-head against both the Rangers and the Royals, they get the selection, and vice versa for the other teams mentioned.
But, if the Mariners have a better head-to-head record against the Rangers, who have a better head-to-head record against the Royals, who have a better head-to-head record against the Mariners, we’ll fall into a different scenario. That scenario is outlined here:
The teams are ranked by their combined win% against the other two teams. The team with the highest % will be selected
If two teams have the same win%, then they will follow the “Two Team” tiebreaker scenario listed above until one team is selected.
Following so far?
Scenario: Four teams are tied for a playoff seed.
Just kidding. There is a scenario, but I’m not going to go through all that. If that happens, then I’ll be the first one googling the scenario or just waiting for the internet to tell me who’s in and who isn’t.
Keep this handy in case one of these teams makes a run here in the final weeks. I really like the playoff picture as it stands, but chaos is always waiting to happen.