Hypothetical: What if we re-seeded the MLB playoffs?
Yes, I know. MLB playoffs have been messed with many times (most recently in 2022). Fans have been up in arms about the re-structuring, whether it’s eliminating game 163 in favor of tiebreakers, or allowing a third wild card team to get in.
I like the current format the way it is. That is, with 6 teams getting in and giving the top two seeds a bye. The division winners get locked into the top 3 seeds, with the top wild card team able to host a best-of-3 playoff series. Most of the time the seeding is straightforward and fair, with the division winners’ records showing a higher percentage than the wild card teams. But there have been certain scenarios within the past couple of years where a wild card team ends up with a higher winning percentage than a division winner. The poster child for this is the 2023 AL playoffs, where the Twins, although having the worst winning percentage of all 6 playoff teams, was awarded the 3rd playoff seed and a home series. They then went on to beat the 6-seeded Blue Jays before getting eliminated by the Astros in the next round.
But, what if this scenario was done differently?
In the NBA, there are still divisions, but the playoffs are seeded by overall winning percentage. The top 8 teams in each conference are awarded the top 8 seeds (we’re sticking with the format they used before all the “play in” rules went into effect - let’s NOT bring that into MLB please). With this format, the top two teams aren’t given byes, but need to face the two lowest seeds to advance. We’ve seen some major upsets in these rounds because of that. This is exciting, but it’s not exactly the change I’m considering.
I like that the top two teams get byes in the first round. They’ve earned it. They played the best 162 game seasons out of the whole league and there should be a reward for that. I’d propose re-seeding the rest. Take teams 3-6 and seed them based off of winning percentage, regardless of the third division winner. Take the 2023 AL playoff bracket I mentioned earlier (please excuse my visually unappealing excel bracketology…I’ll get better at this). It looked like this:
As you can see, the Rays had the second best winning percentage in the AL, but were given the 4th best spot, whereas the Twins, as previously mentioned, had the lowest winning percentage, but given a higher seeding than the Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays. Let’s say we re-seeded these teams according to overall winning percentage. Here’s what that bracket would look like:
Now the Rays get a bye, the Twins go to Houston (where they ended up losing that year), and the Rangers host a series (even though they went on to win the World Series being a road dog up until the Series itself). How does this change the outlook of the 2023 playoffs? It’s hard to say. The Rays lost at home to the Rangers in the first round, and then the Rangers went into Baltimore and took care of the Orioles too, so we may have still ended up with the same scenario with the Astros and Rangers in the ALCS, and eventually the Rangers winning it all.
The counterpoint to this argument is the sheer lack of division rivalries we see within the NBA. I may be wrong, but I don’t think the common NBA fan can name the divisions within each conference, let alone which teams are in them. It might not seem like a big deal, but there is something to be said about inner division rivals fighting each other out to secure the division and being awarded a home playoff series. With that incentive gone, are teams less concerned about their division rivals, and more concerned with the overall field within the league they play in? We already get some of that with the competing three wild card spots. It’s not a bad thing per se, but it might take a little bit of the sting out of the current rivalries we see here in 2025 (think Dodgers/Padres, Cubs/Brewers, Phillies/Mets). Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure those teams and fan bases will still hate each other, but MLB may not schedule as many divisional games.
How this affects other years:
Going back to 2022, only one of the sides of the playoff bracket is affected each year due to this re-seeding hypothetical.
2022 AL - No Change
2022 NL - Cardinals get 4 seed; Mets get 3 seed
2023 AL - Reference above example
2023 NL - No Change
2024 AL - Astros get 4 seed; Orioles get 3 seed
2024 NL - No Change
While it may not seem like a big factor in the playoff picture over the past couple of years, maybe that’s why it’s worth exploring. I think the best changes come with small adjustments to the current status quo.
What do you think about this?