Reverse Splits: Lefties
Article image via foxsports.com
All data via FanGraphs
I was watching the Blue Jays/Yankees game over the weekend, and I was tuning into the Toronto broadcast. While the Yankees’ lineup was turning over, I kept hearing the Blue Jays’ broadcasting team talking about how well Cody Bellinger is hitting left-handing pitching this year, and that it might be a better idea for John Schneider to go against traditional baseball logic and keep his righty in to face Bellinger, instead of subbing in a lefty. That got me thinking about the value of having a guy like that in the lineup, and which other left-handed hitters have bucked the trend of getting stranded on an island when a lefty specialist comes in.
It’s hard enough to hit Major League pitching, that’s why I never went pro (as I get older, my recollection of my playing days gets a bit foggier, but somehow my high-school performances get better). But as a left-handed hitter, it’s even harder to imagine barrelling up a 90-mph lefty sweeper that starts at your eyeballs and ends up on the other side of the plate. Most non-athletes, and even self-proclaimed “almost” pros like myself would probably hit the dirt as soon as it left the pitcher’s hand. As a pro, being able to hit left-handed pitching as a left-handed hitter is one of the most valuable skills you can bring to a lineup. You’re tougher to work around. You’re less likely to get hung out to dry by a lefty specialist. You cause managerial headaches and force industry veterans to defy their years and years of baseball logic.
I wanted to give those lefties credit where credit is due. I used the FanGraphs split tool to separate the qualified hitters out and ordered them by OPS variances, then compared that for LHP vs. RHP. The guys at the top of this list are not going to be the guys that hit EVERYONE well, it’s going to be the guys who hit lefties better than righties, in what we would call a “reverse split”.
There are 8 guys on this list that stand out. By that, I mean they have an increase of over 100 points on their OPS when they face lefties vs. righties. In order to qualify, they needed to have at least 60 PAs vs. LHP. Something to consider is that these guys face righties way more often than they face lefties, so there is the issue of sample size being a discrepancy. So for that, I will disclose what percentage of their plate appearances are vs. lefty/righty. It will be shown as a percentage in parenthesis like this: (25%) - this would be for someone whose PAs are divided up by 25% lefty vs. 75% righty (handedness of pitchers faced). All measures are for OPS.
8. Nolan Gorman (22%) - STL
vs. LHP: .800
vs. RHP: .687
Variance: +112
7. Zack McKinstry (24%) - DET
vs. LHP: .896
vs. RHP: .755
Variance: +142
6. Drake Baldwin (20%) - ATL
vs. LHP: .916
vs. RHP: .765
Variance: +151
5. Michael Conforto (17%) - LAD
vs. LHP: .770
vs. RHP: .598
Variance: +172
4. Andrew Benintendi (19%) - CWS
vs. LHP: .887
vs. RHP: .710
Variance: +177
3. Cedric Mullins (27%) - BAL/NYM
vs. LHP: .831
vs. RHP: .649
Variance: +182
2. Cody Bellinger (26%) - NYY
vs. LHP: 1.025
vs. RHP: .764
Variance: +261
1. JJ Bleday (20%) - ATH
vs. LHP: .949
vs. RHP: .677
Variance: +272
For fun, I also want to show which players are extremely consistent between left and right-handed pitching. So, here’s a snapshot of the qualified hitters with the closest variances:
These guys are all within 50 OPS points between LHP and RHP. There’s still a difference, but these guys are all either good or average against either handedness. Look at Kyle Schwarber “embracing death” as he said and hitting with slightly reverse splits.
Also, since I already had the data, I wanted to see who struggles against left-handed pitching as a lefty batter. Some of these hitters are downright awful against lefties. Take a look at these guys:
Looks like everyone’s favorite rookie slugger Nick Kurtz needs to spend some time with Kyle Schwarber this offseason. Also, a guy like Oneil Cruz with a sub-.400 OPS against lefties while being a non-platoon player has to find a way to get on base. Brandon Marsh has been a key piece for the Phillies outfield, but he’s striking out 37% of his PAs against lefties, vs. 22% against righties.
Stay tuned as I’ll be doing the right-handed version as soon as I get some time.