Zero to Hero: July to August
All stats via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs
August is a great time to catch fire. The month is hot, the season’s dragged on, and now it’s time to enter the final stretch of the regular season. Some guys are helping their team secure playoff seeding to position themselves for a title. Some guys are helping their team make a playoff push. Some guys are helping their own case for a payday this offseason. And some guys are helping themselves secure an everyday roster spot and set up next year.
Baseball is a long season, and much like life, there are ebbs and flows throughout. Players go through slumps, rough patches, etc. They can have hitless streaks, home run droughts, mechanical flaws, mental breaks, and everything in between. As important as it is to stay consistent, it’s just as crucial to be able to correct course when things go sideways. So, rather than highlight the guys that have been doing it all season, I wanted to show some love to the players that saw their July’s go south, and came back with a vengeance in August. For the first time doing this, I decided to go off of OPS. I feel that OPS is one of the best offensive measurements to use to gauge a player’s individual performance. It’s also very straightforward and doesn’t rely on advanced analytics or formulas that I don’t understand (I think analytics are great and vital to baseball’s success and give us a unique way of viewing the sport, but I also think there’s a beauty in simplicity and seeing how a player contributes on the field through your own eyes).
I took all of the qualified hitters from July and August and stacked their OPS’s against each other to find who had the biggest variances. Simple and straightforward.
Before we do the top ten, I wanted to point out some honorable mentions:
Ernie Clement (TOR)
July OPS: .527
August OPS: .740
Increase: .213
Jake Cronenworth (SDP)
July OPS: .679
August OPS: .900
Increase: .221
Trea Turner (PHI)
July OPS: .681
August OPS: .905
Increase: .224
Junior Caminero (TBR)
July OPS: .706
August OPS: .944
Increase: .238
Juan Soto (NYM)
July OPS: .760
August OPS: 1.009
Increase: .249
Shout out to the above five guys as they made huge strides in August, but didn’t crack the top ten. Now, let’s take a look at who did make the list:
10. Christian Yelich (MIL)
July OPS: .689
August OPS: .973
Variance: .284
Yelich was much more effective in August than July, which is evident. His BB rate went from 8.5% to 13.3%, his K rate from 31.90% to 23.40%, and his slugging went from .381 to .559. This was due in part to his 5 doubles and 7 homers. When you have your worst month of the season in July and follow it up with your best month in August, you know you’re a true veteran who can stick out the dog days of summer.
9. Rafael Devers (SFG)
July OPS: .704
August OPS: .989
Variance: .285
Devers found his groove in San Francisco. He had his best month in August since being traded to the Giants in June. July was his worst month, and that’s including March/April when he started out the season like 0 for 20 with 15 Ks or something. In August, he hit 9 homers and slugged .592, his best mark since the .606 he posted in May.
8. Corbin Carroll (ARI)
July OPS: .686
August OPS: .985
Variance: .299
Carroll had his worst month in July (you’ll start to notice a theme here). Even though he hit 5 triples(!), he only got on base at a .244 clip. Moving to August, he upped his OBP 130 points to .374, mostly in part due to improved plate discipline, walking 16 times as opposed to 3 in July. He hit 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 8 homers. He’s still striking out at nearly the same rate, but when you factor in how often he walked, it balances out much better.
7. Wenceel Perez
July OPS: .535
August OPS: 843
Variance: .308
What’s interesting about Wenceel Perez is August is actually his second-worst month of the year (July being his worst, of course). He posted OPS’s of .973 and .940 in May and June, before dropping to .535 in July. So what happened? From what I can see, his July was extremely unlucky. His BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, was a paltry .234. Aside from doubling his walks (5 to 10) in August, his batted ball luck increased by nearly 100 points, as his BABIP went to .333. For me, Perez is one of those Tigers players that gets lost in the shuffle with all their other platoon pieces, plus having missed the start of the year due to injury. But as a switch hitting outfielder, he’s found a way to be a staple in the Tigers’ lineup.
6. Freddie Freeman
July OPS: .678
August OPS: .993
Variance: .315
March through May, Freddie was hot. But in June and July, he dipped way down with only 12 extra base hits in 207 plate appearances. His K rate in July was 31.70%, meaning he struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. In August, he cut that down to 14.8%, tacking on 9 doubles and 7 homers, totaling 16 extra base hits in 117 plate appearances. The Dodgers are a whole different beast when Freddie is Freddie.
5. Jurickson Profar
July OPS: .709
August OPS: 1.026
Variance: .317
After the PEDs and the suspension, I was thinking his breakout year at age 31 in San Diego was manufactured. But clearly he’s found something different. Even in a struggling Braves lineup he’s mashing. I wouldn’t say his July was horrible, since he was just beginning his season, but his August was incredible. Profar walked 24 times, while only striking out 19 times for a BB/K ratio of 1.26. His OBP increased by 115 points and his SLG by 202! He hit 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 9 home runs, posting the 4th highest OPS in August among qualified hitters.
4. Francisco Lindor
July OPS: .629
August OPS: .997
Variance: .368
Queens saw Lindor’s best month in August. His June/July were months to forget. But in August, he was simply hitting it where the defense wasn’t. Lindor’s BABIP was .402, which was 7th among qualified hitters. His slugging went up 200 points due to his 8 doubles and 6 homers. He also stole 9 bases, his highest monthly total all season. He got on base, and he made it count.
3. Pete Alonso
July OPS: .548
August OPS: .925
Variance: .377
In July, Pete was 172nd out of 181 qualified hitters in OPS. His BABIP was .133, which was 180th (only Anthony Volpe was behind him at .130). In August, Alonso raised his BABIP to .297. His OBP went from .242 to .333 and his SLG went from .306 to .592. He had 8 doubles, 9 homers, and 29 RBIs. The stats look a lot better when the guys in front of you get on base (Lindor). To put in perspective how bad his July was, he walked 5 times less in August and still increased his OBP by 91 points.
2. Bryan Reynolds
July OPS: .487
August OPS: .926
Variance: .439
Bryan Reynolds was the 3rd worst hitter in all of baseball in July. In 90 PAs, he struck out 30 times and only walked twice. Not only that, but he had decent luck on the balls he put in play. His BABIP was .298, a point higher than Pete Alonso’s monster August. That should put into frame how horrid his July was. In August, he struck out 33 times, but he also had 30 more PAs and he walked 14 times. His increase in OBP, SLG, and BABIP came from his two-bag output. Reynolds hit 12 doubles in August, alongside a triple and 4 home runs. He also had 57 total bases to July’s 23.
Brice Turang
July OPS: .560
August OPS: 1.093
Variance: .533
Brice Turang had a historic August. Turang’s HR total in 2023: 6. His HR total in 2024: 7. Brice Turang’s HR total in August: 10. His 1.093 was the highest OPS in baseball in August. Compared to July, he walked a little more, and struck out a little more. But the biggest difference came from his BABIP and his SLG. Turang had 19 more hits in August than July. His OBP went up 140 points and his SLG went up 392 points! His BABIP, which does not factor in his 10 home runs, was at .397. So aside from hitting the ball over the fence, he also found every gap imaginable. In July, he had 6 extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 homer). In August, he had 17 extra base hits (6 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs). Therefore, he is our crowned winner of August, and rightfully the NL Player of the Month.
Stay tuned…coming soon we’ll take a look at who went the opposite direction.