Player Comparisons: Ryan O’Hearn vs. Gavin Sheets
This might not be the hard-hitting analysis you were hoping for, but it has piqued my interest ever since the Padres made the trade at the July 31st trade deadline, bringing in both Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles. So far, Laureano has been exactly what the Padres needed, a dependable left fielder with a cannon and pop at the plate. But the addition of Ryan O’Hearn made me wonder how they planned on using him. Granted, he was a highly-sought after piece at the deadline for multiple teams, but the Padres seemed to already have a player in place of a similar profile…the resurgent Gavin Sheets.
Sheets had been a cast-off of the Chicago White Sox record-breakingly horrible 2024 campaign. He came over to the Padres before the season on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. This was later converted to a major league deal for 1 year worth $1.6 million. Sheets has enjoyed a breath of fresh San Diego air, seeing an improvement in his offensive efficiency surrounded by the bolstered Padres lineup. He’s enjoyed campaigns in both left field and at first base, all while increasing his opportunities against LHP. Sheets has two more years of arbitration before becoming a free agent in 2028. So why was O’Hearn brought in?
O’Hearn signed a 1 year $3.5 million contract with the Orioles for the 2024 season, with a team option for 2025 worth $7.5 million, which the Orioles picked up. O’Hearn is set to be a free agent after the 2025 season, so the move to bring him in makes him a pure rental player for the Padres. O’Hearn is a lefty, just like Sheets, and plays first base, alongside both corner outfield positions. He’s been a platoon player most of his career, and faces LHP far less than Sheets does. He’s also three years older than Sheets (32 vs 29 years old). On the surface, this looks like a wash, so why give up player capital to bring O’Hearn over?
First let’s look at the counting stats. We all grew up on these stats before we were introduced to Statcast and Baseball Savant. Batting Average still means something, right?
At first glance, these stats look nearly identical. The same amount of hits (91). Singles only separated by 2, and doubles only by 1. Sure, Sheets has seen 150 more pitches, but O’Hearn hasn’t faced LHP to the extent Sheets has. This seems like a lateral move. But that’s where our new friends in the advanced stats and metrics come in. Below, we’ll take a look at what Baseball Savant has to say.
Hitting Comparison (via Baseball Savant)
Let’s take a look at the differences between their batting percentile rankings. Gavin Sheets will be represented on the left, with Ryan O’Hearn represented on the right:
Gavin Sheets
Ryan O’Hearn
The first place my eyes go is to the bottom five categories: Squared-Up%, Chase%, Whiff %, K%, and BB%. O’Hearn is clearly leading in all five. What does this mean? Well, O’Hearn swings at better pitches, makes better contact, swings and misses less, strikes out less, and walks more. This is something the counting stats can’t exactly show you at a quick glance. Sheets reigns supreme when it comes to bat speed, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage, which correlates to more potential power output, but at the cost of striking out and chasing pitches out of the zone.
By this view, O’Hearn looks to be the more valuable bat. And in all fairness, the Padres aren’t looking for a top tier defender or a baserunning specialist in Sheets or O’Hearn, the value is in the bat. So, the Padres organization clearly saw value in O’Hearn. But, are they playing him that way?
Here’s a look at both players’ stats in the month of August since O’Hearn has joined the team:
O’Hearn is clearly the favorite here. He’s appeared in 10 of 12 games since joining the team, while Sheets has only appeared in 4, with two of those as single at-bat pinch hits.
I tried to get Padres fans to chime in on their thoughts, but my X account hasn’t exactly popped off yet.
What do you think?